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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential target this season (94.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (51.5%).

THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to accrue 6.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Gabe Davis's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.0% to 55.4%.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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