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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.

Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (51.5%).

The Chicago Bears pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (69.7%) vs. wideouts this year (69.7%).

The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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