Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential target this season (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.3%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.7%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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