Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (95.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (49.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to total 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 53.8%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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