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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-113/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Gabe Davis has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (95.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (49.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.

Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 51.5%.

The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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