Gabriel Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+134/-168).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Gabe Davis has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (94.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (49.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 48.8%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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