Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Gabriel Davis profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 59.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Gabriel Davis's 69.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 53.0% rate.
Gabriel Davis's 11.7 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a a noteable progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 8.5 figure.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Gabriel Davis has put up quite a few less air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Gabriel Davis has been used much less in his team's passing offense.
This year, the stout New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 4.0 YAC.

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