Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Gabriel Davis has run a route on 88.5% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When talking about air yards, Gabriel Davis grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating an impressive 93.0 per game.
Gabriel Davis has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 52.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
The Dolphins pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 7.61 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.