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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Gabriel Davis's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 53.0% to 59.2%.

Gabriel Davis's 10.0 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a noteable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 8.5 figure.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 3 points.

To the extent of a defense's influence on pace, at 28.47 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most sluggish in the league (in a neutral context) right now.

Gabriel Davis has notched quite a few less air yards this year (73.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).

Gabriel Davis's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 49.8.

This year, the stout Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a measly 3.5 YAC.

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