Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:31 AM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Gabriel Davis profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
Gabriel Davis's 61.9% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 53.0% rate.
Gabriel Davis's pass-game effectiveness has improved this year, notching 10.06 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 8.47 mark last year.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.
Gabriel Davis has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (77.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
Gabriel Davis's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 49.8.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, conceding 7.75 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.