Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.3%).
Gabe Davis has put up quite a few more air yards this season (87.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 49.6%.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.18 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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