Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.9%.
Gabe Davis's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a measly 8.77 yards-per-target compared to a 10.42 figure last season.

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