Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.