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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

Gabe Davis has gone out for fewer passes this season (94.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (51.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Gabe Davis's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.0% to 53.4%.

Gabe Davis's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 8.73 yards-per-target compared to a 12.46 mark last season.

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