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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
  • Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential target this season (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.3%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.7%.
  • Gabe Davis's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 9.33 yards-per-target compared to a 10.39 figure last year.
  • The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) to wideouts this year.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).

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