Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Gabe Davis has been used less as a potential target this season (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.3%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.7%.
Gabe Davis's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 9.33 yards-per-target compared to a 10.39 figure last year.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) to wideouts this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).

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