Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Gabe Davis has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (95.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (49.3%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 51.5%.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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