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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-193).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (17.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.8% in games he has played).

Gabe Davis has put up quite a few more air yards this season (87.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).

Gabe Davis's 42.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.5.

Gabe Davis grades out in the 95th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.67 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 49.6%.

The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).

The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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