Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
Gabe Davis has posted many more air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 28.5.
Gabe Davis ranks in the 97th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.80 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 61.6% to 55.6%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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