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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).
  • Gabe Davis has posted many more air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
  • Gabe Davis's 39.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 28.5.
  • Gabe Davis ranks in the 97th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.80 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
  • Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 61.6% to 55.6%.
  • The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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