Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (16.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).
Gabe Davis has accrued significantly more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 38.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.5.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 54.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.