Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +221 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.0% in games he has played).
Gabe Davis grades out in the 84th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.9%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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