Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Gabe Davis has put up quite a few more air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 47.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 32.0.
Gabe Davis grades out in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.50 per game.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Gabe Davis's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 54.8%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 4th-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.62 per game this year.

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