Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-314).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +214 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Gabe Davis has posted quite a few more air yards this season (98.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 47.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 32.0.
Gabe Davis ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.55 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Gabe Davis's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.0% to 53.4%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) vs. wideouts this year (61.5%).

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