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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
  • THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (16.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.5% in games he has played).
  • Gabe Davis has accrued many more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
  • Gabe Davis's 46.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 28.5.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Gabe Davis's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 61.6% to 55.7%.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.4%).
  • The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.55 per game this year.
  • The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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