Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 4:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (17.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
Gabe Davis has totaled many more air yards this season (100.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.5.
Gabe Davis grades out in the 93rd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.56 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 53.8%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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