Gabriel Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gabriel Davis

NFL · Player Props

Gabriel Davis

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+214/-327).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +229 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +214.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Gabe Davis to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (15.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Gabe Davis has put up many more air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Gabe Davis's 42.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.5.
Gabe Davis ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.57 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Gabe Davis's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.6% to 48.8%.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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