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Gabriel Davis

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +169 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Gabriel Davis to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (21.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.9% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.59 per game since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

More Gabriel Davis Player Props

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