Foster Moreau Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to garner 5.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this week (16.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.3% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Foster Moreau's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, accumulating 3.8 yards per game vs just 2.3 last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.5%) vs. TEs this year (67.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.