Foster Moreau Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Foster Moreau

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-194/+139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to earn 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus TEs this year (63.1%).
The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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