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Foster Moreau Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-104/-125).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -104.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Saints are a huge 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 69.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in football.The predictive model expects Foster Moreau to total 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the least pass-oriented team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Saints.The Saints O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.Foster Moreau's 76.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year conveys a material decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 83.2% figure.The Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.98 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in football.As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
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