Foster Moreau Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Foster Moreau

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 19, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

Foster Moreau's 5.1% Target Rate this year shows a a noteworthy decrease in his passing attack utilization over last year's 10.3% rate.
After accruing 27.0 air yards per game last season, Foster Moreau has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 7.0 per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (63.3%) versus tight ends this year (63.3%).
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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