Foster Moreau Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-427).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -423 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -427.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Foster Moreau's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.4% to 79.2%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
Foster Moreau ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.5%) vs. TEs this year (67.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 4th-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.12 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.