Foster Moreau Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-444).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +285 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Foster Moreau has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Foster Moreau has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (19.0 per game).
Foster Moreau's 29.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 15.4.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) vs. tight ends this year (61.9%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.