Foster Moreau Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-477).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +297 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +279.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Foster Moreau has compiled significantly more air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
Foster Moreau's 28.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 15.7.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.