Foster Moreau Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Foster Moreau

NFL · Player Props

Foster Moreau

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Foster Moreau Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-380).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Foster Moreau to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (13.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.0% in games he has played).
Foster Moreau has put up a monstrous 22.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
Foster Moreau's 22.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 15.7.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (79%) to tight ends this year (79.0%).

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Foster Moreau ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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