Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 33.5% run rate.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
Ezekiel Elliott's rushing effectiveness (3.93 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (21st percentile among RBs).
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the bottom running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.70 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 14th percentile.
The New York Jets defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, allowing just 4.22 yards-per-carry.

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