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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.

The projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to notch 20.0 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The predictive model expects Ezekiel Elliott to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (62.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.0% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have only 126.6 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Patriots have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 56.2 plays per game.

Ezekiel Elliott's 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season signifies a noteable drop-off in his rushing proficiency over last season's 61.0 mark.

Ezekiel Elliott's ground efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a mere 3.20 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 3.96 rate last year.

Ezekiel Elliott checks in as one of the worst RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.

More Ezekiel Elliott Player Props

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