Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to run on 41.8% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers run defense has conceded a meager 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 25th-lowest rate in the league.
The Chargers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
After taking on 50.9% of his team's run game usage last season, Ezekiel Elliott has played a smaller part in the run game this season, now taking on only 34.7%.
Ezekiel Elliott's 33.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his running ability over last year's 61.0 mark.

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