Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The model projects the Patriots to be the 7th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The opposing side have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) vs. the Giants defense this year.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott has been a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game this year (35.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (50.9%).
Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Ezekiel Elliott comes in as one of the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.59 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 20th percentile.
The New York Giants defensive tackles profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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