Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys rank as the 9th-most run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Ezekiel Elliott has averaged 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (84th percentile).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (41.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.1% in games he has played).
Ezekiel Elliott's running effectiveness (3.96 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (22nd percentile among running backs).
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the bottom running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.74 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in the league (just 78 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

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