Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-295).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (59.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least TDs in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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