Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-107/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +174 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for 0.75 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).
The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (41.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.6% in games he has played).

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