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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys last year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).

Ezekiel Elliott has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 11.6% last year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among running backs.

The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) last year.

The Browns pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.3%) versus RBs last year (77.3%).

The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

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