Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching performance gotten better this season, notching 2.5 adjusted receptions compared to just 1.1 last season.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.6% to 94.3%.

Favors Under

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
Ezekiel Elliott's 29.5% Route Participation Rate this year shows a a noteworthy drop-off in his pass attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure.
The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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