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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.

The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching performance gotten better this season, notching 2.5 adjusted receptions compared to just 1.1 last season.

Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.6% to 94.3%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.

Ezekiel Elliott's 29.5% Route Participation Rate this year shows a a noteworthy drop-off in his pass attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure.

The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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