Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Ezekiel Elliott has run fewer routes this year (25.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.1%).
The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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