Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-310/+230).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -310.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
In this week's contest, Ezekiel Elliott is predicted by the model to find himself in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.7 targets.
While Ezekiel Elliott has received 8.7% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New England's pass game in this contest at 17.0%.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving performance has improved this year, notching 2.4 adjusted catches compared to a measly 1.1 last year.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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