Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-184/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -169 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.6% pass rate.
Ezekiel Elliott's 8.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 16.1.
Ezekiel Elliott's receiving talent has declined this year, averaging just 1.2 yards per game compared to 2.6 last year.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.1% to 71.4%.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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