Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
Ezekiel Elliott's 7.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 16.1.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.1% to 60.0%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.5%).

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