Ezekiel Elliott Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-142/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 76.6%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has given their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott has been less involved as a potential target this season (43.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (58.6%).
Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching performance diminished this season, compiling a measly 1.3 yards per game vs 2.7 last season.

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