Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 72.6% to 89.6%.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Ezekiel Elliott's 27.9% Route% this season marks an impressive decline in his passing attack utilization over last season's 44.1% rate.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Ezekiel Elliott has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, averaging a measly 3.90 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
Ezekiel Elliott's 3.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a material reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 6.4% figure.

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