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Ezekiel Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • Ezekiel Elliott's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 72.6% to 89.6%.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Ezekiel Elliott's 27.9% Route% this season marks an impressive decline in his passing attack utilization over last season's 44.1% rate.
  • The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Ezekiel Elliott has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, averaging a measly 3.90 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
  • Ezekiel Elliott's 3.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a material reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 6.4% figure.

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