Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ezekiel Elliott

NFL · Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ezekiel Elliott Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Ezekiel Elliott's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 72.6% to 91.6%.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Ezekiel Elliott has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (29.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (44.1%).
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Ezekiel Elliott's 3.0 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.0 mark.

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